extract from 2024/2025 report written 1984The 20th C Economist's end poverty deputy editor Norman Macrae's alternative "little sister"/ womens empowermetn" future alternative to macroeconomists', big-low-trust-tech: orwells big brother - full book download here
There has been a sea-change in the traditional ages on man. Compared with 1974 our children in 2024 generally go out to paid work (especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning - much more than they did in 1974.
In most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About 5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen.
A child who passes his Prelim can decide whether to tale a job at once, and take up the remainder of his twelve years of free schooling later; or he can pass on to secondary schooling forthwith, and start to study for his Higher Diploma.
The mode of learning for the under-twelves is nowadays generally computer-generated. The child sits at home or with a group of friends or (more rarely) in an actual, traditional school building. She or he will be in touch with a computer program that has discovered , during a preliminary assessment, her or his individual learning pattern. The computer will decide what next questions to ask or task to set after each response from each child.
A school teacher assessor, who may live half a world away, will generally have been hired, via the voucher system by the family for each individual child. A good assessor will probably have vouchers to monitor the progress of twenty-five individual children, although some parents prefer to employ groups of assessors - one following the child's progress in emotional balance, one in mathematics, one in civilized living, and so on - and these groups band together in telecommuting schools.
Many communities and districts also have on-the-spot 'uncles' and 'aunts'. They monitor childrens' educational performance by browsing through the TC and also run play groups where they meet and get to know the children personally...
Some of the parents who have temporarily opted out of employment to be a family educator also put up material on the TC s for other parents to consult. Sometimes the advice is given for free, sometimes as a business. It is a business for Joshua Ginsberg. He puts a parents advice newsletter on the TC , usually monthly. Over 300 million people subscribe to it, nowadays at a 5-cent fee per person, or less. Here's an entry from the current newsletter:
"Now that TCs are universal and can access libraries of books, 3-d video, computer programs, you name it, it is clear that the tasks of both the Educator and the Communicator are far more stimulating that ten years ago.
One of my recent lessons with my ten-year-old daughter Julie was in art appreciation. In the standard art appreciation course the TC shows replicas of famous artists' pictures, and a computer asks the pupil to match the artist to the picture. Julie said to the computer that it would be fun to see Constable's Haywain as Picasso might have drawn it. The computer obliged with its interpretation , and then ten more stylised haywains appeared together with the question 'who might have drawn these?'. I believe we are the first to have prompted the TC along this road, but it may now become a standard question when the computer recognises a child with similar learning patterns to Julie's.
It is sometimes said that today's isolated sort of teaching has robbed children of the capacity to play and interact with other children. This is nonsense. We ensure that Julie and her four year old brother Pharon have lots of time to play with children in our neighbourhood . But in work we do prefer to interact with children who are of mutual advantage to Julie and to each other. The computer is an ace teacher, but so are people. You really learn things if you can teach them to someone else. Our computer has helped us to find a group of four including Julie with common interests, who each have expertise in some particular areas to teach the others.
The TC also makes it easier to play games within the family. My parents used to play draughts, halma, then chess with me. They used to try to be nice to me and let me win. This condescending kindness humiliated me, and I always worked frenetically to beat my younger brother (who therefore always lost and dissolved into tears.) Today Julie, Pharon and I play halma together against the graded computer, and Julie and I play it at chess. The computer knows Pharon's standard of play at halma and Julie's and mine at chess. Its default setting is at that level where each of us can win but only if we play at our best. Thus Pharon sometimes wins his halma game while Julie and I are simultaneously losing our chess game, and this rightly gives Pharon a feeling of achievement. When Julie and I have lost at chess, we usually ask the computer to re-rerun the game, stopping at out nmistakes and giving a commentary. As it is a friendly computer it does a marvelous job of consoling us. Last week it told Julie that the world champion actually once made the same mistake as she had done - would she like to see that game?
I intend to devote the next two letters to the subjects I have discussed here , but retailing the best of your suggestions instead of droning on with mine."
While the computer's role in children's education is mainly that of instructor (discovering a child's learning pattern and responding to it) and learning group matcher, its main role in higher education is as a store of knowledge. Although a computer can only know what Man has taught it, it has this huge advantage. No individual man lives or studies long enough to imbibe within himself all the skills and resources that are the product of the millennia of man's quest for knowledge, all the riches and details from man's inheritance of learning passed on from generation to generation. But any computer today can inherit and call up instantly any skill which exists anywhere in the form of a program.
This is why automatically updated databases are today the principal instruments of higher education and academic research. It is difficult for our generation to conceive that only forty years ago our scientists acted as tortoise-like discoverers of knowledge, confined to small and jealous cliques with random and restricted methods of communicating ideas. Down until the 1980s the world has several hundred sepaate cancer research organisations with no central co-ordinating database.
June 23 2010, 1:01am, The Times
follow the Ma: jack has spent since 1994 searching for where big-small chnage will come to chich markets - so fast moving consumer goods chnaged by ecommerce; finance and social sharing markets eg bikes by mobile apps-clouds; furniture by OTO; jobs education and happiness sectors by 1 refugee and bodrer crossings, 2 expereintial learning olympics and the games of education of youth as sustainability goals generation on every belt road map
Macrae: he was an elegant writer of original ideas who delighted in paradoxes
Norman Macrae, CBE, journalist, was born on September 10, 1923. He died on June 11, 2010, aged 86
Jun 11, 2010
A British economist, journalist and author, considered by some to have been one of the world's best forecasters when it came to economics and society. These forecasts mapped back to system designs mediated so that readers and entrepreneurial networks could exponentially calibrate shared alternative scenarios. He joined The Economist in 1949 and retired as its deputy chief editor in 1988. He foresaw the Pacific century, the reversal of nationalization of enterprises, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the spread of the internet, which were all published in the newspaper during his time there. Not to get bored, his first ten years in retirement produced the biography of Johnny Von Neumann (the mathematical father of computers and networks), a column for the UK Sunday Times, and a 'Heresy Column' for Fortune. He was the father of mathematician, marketing commentator, and author Chris Macrae. Their joint future history on death of distance in 1984 forecast that 2005-2015 would be humanity's most critical decade irreversibly impacting sustainability. In 1984, he wrote "The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to: provide readers with a brainstorming journey of what people in an internetworking world might do, and predict that a new economy would emerge with revolutionary new productivity and social benefits enjoyed by all who interacted in a net-connected world. In this book, he wrote: "Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be miniaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984."
Y email@example.com :: rowp.tv :: linkedin UNwomens :: WASHINTGON DC TEXT HOTLIENE (USA=1) 240 316 8157 chapter 20x chapter 1chapter 2 chapter 3 part 1chapter 3 part 2 chapter 4 chapter 5 chapter 6 chapter 7 chapter 8 chapter 9 chapter 10 chapter 11 part 1chapter 11 part 2 chapter 12 chapter 13 chapter 14 chapter 15 chapter 16 chapter 17 chapter 18 chapter 19
These are the most exciting times to be alive. Three generations are determining whether our species will be sustainable. For the first time we are designing technologies that have the same worldwide scale as nature. There is lots of work to be done.
It would be wise to assume that we have to 2030 to ensure all systems are renewing next generations. At some stage, 2030 or soon thereafter. Risks will be compounding irreversibly – whether our species collapses because of climate, plague, or nuclear or other waves of terror.
Its lovely having 17 sustainbability goals bur hard for the peoples to ensure that public servants are balancing 17 priorities.
Let’s consider a simpler model. This one was worked on for 18 years at The Economist between 1968 and 1984 as leaders around the world were interviewed on whether post-industrial revolution could sustain millennials as the first networked generation.
The Economist projected 3.5 billion jobs for youth of which 3 billion would be remew:
Renewing community so that wherever a child was born she had a fair chance of making the most of life
Renewing planet, ending carbon power by going green
Mediating way above zero=sum advantages of investing over 1000 times more in communication technologies 2016 versus 1946.
The Economist refined 4 goals with one early warning sign of whether system transformations were synchronized renewably
Two of these factors came from Keynes life work. He concluded that increasing economist designed what futures were possible for places, and that the Hippocratic oath of economic professionals should be:
Continuously improve youth livelihoods out of every community – the goal most people demand as parents
Add in the two big change factors
Going globally to locally smart in distributing life critical knowhow jobs and education
The warning signal was health and wellbeing. If we are making optimal use of the new technology, its big data local actionability, basic access to healthcare will be 10 times more affordable. Not health services have many moving parts. By basic The Economist sought to prioritise that which maximized populations working lives. Most health services of that kind are affordable. These are different from
Cost of operations mainly caused by accidents and aggression,
Costs of depressed or dirty society – eg obesity, drug use, some cancers
Prolonging life of elderly at any cost
Navigating all of the above involves mediating cultural and other beliefs that kept people going during the industrial era. Quite frankly the first industrial revolution from 1800 was an era one of extremely uneven progress geographically. At the time The Economist started researching ER one group of humans were racing tpo te moon while over a thir still had no access to electricity grids. This is why The Economist timelines to sustainability included the overarching recommendation- by the strat of the 21st century the majority of people will need to recognise that mans greatest risk is differences in incomes and expectations between rich and poor nations
It is also worth repeating with so much work to be done, any place or region which says it cant design full and good livelihoods for all its youth has a terrifying media/mediation problem. It is spiraling seriously non-sustainable systems which need urgent transformation – benchmark how other places have collaboratively transformed beyond such failed system design
In a list of 20th-century British prophets without honour in their own land, the name of Norman Macrae would surely be in the top half dozen. The lack of recognition was particularly odd as Macrae was a journalist, a profession cluttered with self-promoting egos, and his subjects — economics, politics, technology and several more — were standard fare in pubs and Parliaments. There was hardly an aspect of life that was off-limits for him; through his writing he changed many minds and opened even more; most of his ideas were ahead of their time; and he was incapable of writing a dull sentence. And yet, in Britain at least, his achievements went largely unheralded.
The contrast was not lost on Macrae — his articles delighted in paradoxes of every kind — but it was easily explained. In 1949 he joined The Economist, then as now a publication without bylines, and did not leave it until he retired in 1988. Though he went on to write several books and a column in The Sunday Times, as well as becoming an enthusiastic blogger, his finest phrases and most original ideas appeared in The Economist. He was its deputy editor from 1965-88, and though he hoped to become editor he never let frustrated ambition stunt the enormous role he played in the publication’s success. When he joined the paper in 1949, its circulation was roughly 30,000, on a par with The Spectator and the New Statesman. By the time he left, its circulation had grown to more than 300,000, dwarfing the other two. It had indeed become, in Macrae’s words, the “world’s favourite viewspaper”.
Norman Macrae was born in 1923 and went to Mill Hill School in north London. In 1935 he moved with his parents to Moscow, where his father was British Consul. The memories of Stalin’s purges, and of Hitler’s pogroms during another paternal posting, fuelled Macrae’s passionate belief in freedom — just as his experience in the RAF, as a navigator in bombing raids over Germany, later turned him against the waste of war. In 1945 he went up to Corpus Christi, Cambridge, to read economics. He was not impressed (“Much of Cambridge’s intellectual atmosphere then was of subpolytechnic Marxism”), and it was only when he arrived at The Economist that all the pieces fell into place and his life really began.
Despite its anonymity, The Economist was the perfect pulpit for Macrae. It allowed him to roam, geographically as well as intellectually, and it gave him the time to explore big ideas, many of which appeared in the paper’s surveys — the only occasion when authors had a byline.
Perhaps the most remarkable was “Consider Japan” in 1962; long before Westerners realised there might be something to learn from that defeated and hidebound nation, Macrae predicted Japan would become the world’s greatest manufacturer. One reader wrote to the editor urging that, next time Macrae went travelling, he should take a hat with him so the sun wouldn’t addle his brain.
Macrae’s articles were full of such prescience. In 1973, when oil prices quadrupled, he wrote that they would collapse — which they did, just as spectacularly, two years later. When others were extolling the settled borders of the mixed economy in the 1960s and 1970s, he was predicting a global wave of privatisation. In 1983 he forecast the Berlin Wall would come down in Christmas 1989; he was out by just six weeks. He repeatedly disputed the CIA’s analysis of the size and strength of the Soviet economy, and was in due course proved right. And in 1984 he described not just the coming of the internet but also the effects it would have on how people would work and where:
“Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge ... There will be cheap terminals around everywhere ... [which] will be used to access databases anywhere in the world, and will become the brainworker’s mobile place of work.”
One of the abiding temptations of futurologists is to predict what they wish for, and Macrae sometimes did just that. He had a deep distrust of politicians and officialdom, so naturally favoured a small state. Hence his words, describing a book he wrote in 1984 called The 2024 Report: “The main event of 1990-2010 was that the world’s 60-year spasm of big government disappeared. We stopped letting politicians spend the absurd 45 per cent of GNP in countries like Britain ... and we all came down to more like the 10 per cent of GNP spent through government in America in 1929.”
That was one of Macrae’s blind spots. The other was most obvious in the 1970s, when he urged the Heath Government on to bigger and bigger fiscal deficits in pursuit of faster growth and lower unemployment. It was one of the few occasions where his thinking was behind events. It took him some years to shed such crude Keynesianism and come to accept that his supply-side crusades were the surer path to faster growth.
Macrae was the most generous of colleagues, a much loved figure who in private struggled to string words into a half coherent sentence — until he picked up his pen. He was also an effective public speaker who for years delighted American audiences with his unique mix of eccentricity and brilliance. He was honoured by the Japanese with the Order of the Rising Sun in 1988. Perhaps that finally stirred the men in Whitehall, as he was appointed CBE later that year.
Macrae had a long and happy marriage to Janet Kemp, who died in 1994. They had a son and a daughter, who died in 1989 when she was 34. It needed a man of great resilience to take such blows, but nobody who knew Macrae could ever doubt that his was indeed a big heart..........................................................
Examples of whos contributing what to 17 sustainability goals
belt road; over 60 personally agreed partnerships with national leaders often in regional clusters
invited nations that value small enterprises to build virtual economy as large as any national economy; has launched 15 billion $ partnership with places building hi-tech academy damo; parthering participative communites and olympics from 2020
1 end poverty
ending chinese poverty by 2021 is top goal; led his own end poverty project 1988; back at aged 15 his family sent to live in a cave
2 end hunger
rural agriculture is jinping's core study/passion- he has helped design many crops solutions specifics to china's diverse poor rural areas